80% of Nigeria’s 200 million people risk contracting COVID-19 ― Wambebe, WHO consultant

By Temisan Amoye Charles Obadiah Wambebe, a scientist, is a professor of pharmacology, traditional medicine expert, and a missionary. Wambebe was the pioneer Director-General of the National Institute of Pharmaceutical Research and Development (NIPRD) from 1989-2001. He also lectured at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria and served as President of the West African Society of Pharmacology and Drug Research, as well as Pioneer Pro-chancellor and Chairman, Bingham University Nigeria. Currently, he is a Professor Extraordinaire, Tshwane University of Technology, South Africa and, a consultant for the World Health Organisation (WHO). He speaks on the COVID-19 pandemic, traditional herbal medicine, healthcare in Nigeria, life after public service, and combining being a man of God with science. COVID-19 has changed human life as we know it in less than five months. What’s your overview of the pandemic and how the world has responded? It was unthinkable in December last year that a tiny virus could change every major event in the world and our lifestyles in significant ways. Indeed the world was caught unawares. Initially, details of what was really happening in Wuhan, China were not made public. I guess even the Chinese scientists were trying to understand something about the virus and also sequence its gene. But it is amazing that within 60 days of disclosing the genetic sequence, there are over 300 clinical trials worldwide on possible treatments. Similarly, vaccine development that normally takes 11 years took only a few months. There are now over 100 new vaccines developed specifically against coronavirus. In fact, seven of them have already entered human trials. Although the chances of a new vaccine entering the market are about 6%, the Serum Institute (India) has started the manufacturing of vaccine developed by Oxford scientists when clinical trials only started on April 23, 2020. Similarly, Pfizer (USA) and BioNTech (Germany) planned to manufacture a million doses of a new vaccine developed in Germany by the end of this year. On April 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator to fast track the development and manufacture of COVID-19 health technologies, including vaccines, and guarantee equitable access. Surely, we were not prepared, but when the seriousness of COVID-19 became obvious, scientists, governments and manufacturers have responded very well. How do you rate the Nigerian government’s response to COVID-19? And how can they improve? Definitely, Lagos and Kaduna states have responded credibly. I was personally surprised that the Federal Government relaxed the lockdown in FCT, Ogun and Lagos states while confirmed cases were still rising. Furthermore, we are not doing enough tests and tracking yet. Regarding the way forward, we do not need to reinvent the wheel. There are countries that have done very well to contain the virus. We can learn from them. An example is South Korea. When the virus was spreading through community transmission, the country educated, empowered and engaged the whole country. The leadership of the country engaged scientists, listened to them and provided every support to implement the recommendations of the scientists. Based on the recommendations of the scientists, an innovative diagnostic testing strategy was launched and facilities were expanded. They even engaged PhD holders in development and production. Now South Korea supplies the world with validated diagnostic kits for coronavirus. Furthermore, they engaged in diligent contact tracing and testing of vulnerable populations. They isolated patients and aggressively pursued public health strategy of social distancing, hygiene practice and wearing of masks. As of 5th May, only 3 new cases were registered, 10,822 total confirmed cases, 9,484 have recovered, 256 deaths, tested over 600,000 people. To appreciate the success story of South Korea, by mid-March 2020, it had the same number of deaths from coronavirus as the US (about 90). But as of today, South Korea has recorded only 261 deaths while the US has lost 84,763 lives. Even when you factor in the fact that the US is six times the population of South Korea, the difference is still astounding. I urge the government and states to adopt the model of South Korea. The challenge is that the virus may be with us until about 60-80% of the population (Nigeria’s estimated population is 200 million) is infected and that may take 2 years. That is the prediction of different mathematical models. We must take this pandemic seriously and mobilise all resources to conquer it as South Korea did

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